Ah, momentum. Such a fickle and mercurial force. Just ask any athlete. Or anyone who gambles on sports.

One minute you’re rolling, racking up chunk yardage—rushing touchdowns, passing touchdowns, forced fumbles, pick-sixes; while across the field it looks like someone put Xanax in the Gatorade.

But then, just before halftime, the opposing team makes a goal line stand, followed by a kickoff return for a touchdown to begin the third quarter, followed by a bone-crunching sack on your QB resulting in a fumble deep in your own territory. Suddenly you look up and what once appeared to be a blowout is only a one possession game with ample time left on the clock.

What happened? Momentum shifted.

For almost a month, beginning with President Biden’s incoherent debate performance and all throughout the mounting pressure campaign from his party to give up the car keys, the Trump candidacy has been ringing up yardage and points, riding a wave of momentum that soared even higher in the aftermath of an assassination attempt and reached a thunderous crescendo during last week’s RNC.

But a couple hours ago, the news broke that President Biden announced he is bowing out of the game and turning over the football to Vice President Harris.

Enter the goal line stand . . . Or the Hail Mary.

Democrats now have a month to get their shit together and generate some momentum before their Chicago convention in August. For all his recent traction in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump is still well within shouting distance. And despite a brilliant campaign being run by strategist Susie Wiles and company, he remains the most polarizing figure in politics. His kneejerk response to Biden’s announcement felt dickish and mean-spirited. A return to form. So much for recent spiritual awakenings. Maybe it’s just his competitive nature, but I think he missed an opportunity to show some good sportsmanship and wish a rapidly declining elderly statesman well. While moments like these may appeal to his base, they could alienate potential voters and further stall momentum.

Today, the race still appears to be Trump’s to lose. But the next 100 days just got interesting. Like I mentioned in “Law of Momentum: Part One,” with a little enthusiasm and a successful convention, a month from now we could be asking, “Did Republicans peak too early?”

We’re about to find out.

—July 21, 2024